It's long time since I wanted to put on paper my thoughts about developments in Ukraine.
As I was afraid of in post dated 2013, things have turned very bloody and situation has dramatically evolved during last year.
As a result, we have a country which has lost Crimea, risks to loose Donbass and is under a deep economic crisis.
How we got here ?
A political and business class composed basically from those who ruled and controlled Ukraine during last stages of USSR, used its position and power to build a lawless system which allowed them to take over all assets by privatizing best companies, sectors, land etc... and submit most of Ukranians to its rule not allowing country to transit from a state-economy to a free-economy but to a cleptocracy.
Most of Ukranians have not seen its situation improved but in many cases worsened during these 20 year of Independence.
Older generations have struggled to survive in this wild enviroment as pensions kept at very low level ( around 75 $/month !! ) while all utilities ( electricity, gas, water ) became too expensive for them. Food prices rose to levels that keep them away from any other product than those grown at local level. Basically, they have become 'Third World citizens' in the European continent.
Young people have grown in a wild environment, lacked of any other value than 'steal, cheat and become richer at any cost'. Education has not been a priority to be a prepared professional to succeed in your adult life but just a stage to be passed at any price. As a result, average skills and preparation has dramatically fallen. Most of youngster are hardly prepared to compete in 21st century economy.
Medical Care System is disastrous. State-runned is poorly equipped and doctors are not providing proper care if not paid additionally by patients. Private one is expensive and only less than 5% of people can have access to it. As a result, life expectancy has dramatically fallen.
Under these circumstances, you barely can't expect things to evolve positively. And that's what has happened. Once Yanukovich and all his thugs took over power ( democratically , we have to say ), things only worsened for normal average citizens. They plundered economy taking all remaining resources from a already stagnant country. Nobody in West or East really cared that much about it. As it's usually said: 'that was an internal affair'.
That was in my opinion main mistake from Kremlin's side. Instead of trying to build up a prosperous and transparent economy in Ukraine which could be a strong ally for Russia, they just focused on having a 'close ally' in Ukraine ( as they do in Belarus ) without any attention how country was run and how Ukrainians were living under that regime.
I do not know if Kremlin has never been truly interested about democracy and increase standards of life of citizens in Russia and its neighboring countries, but I am sure that is the main reason for citizens in Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus etc...to shift to West and look for a 'better future' as part of that world. Only a small minority has considered Russia as an enemy. Vast majority of people just want to have a decent life, it doesn't matter if it's under Kremlin's , US or EU's umbrella.
Once you get to that point of 'disaffection' ( term used in Catalonia to describe feeling of Catalan society in front of Spanish Government ), you can't hardly manage situation. Instead of trying to readdress situation by changing political power in Ukraine and install a decent regime, Kremlin got involved to try to sustain Yanukovich's Government once it was obvious that it has lost most of support of Ukrainians, even in Eastern part of the country where it was massively voted in previous elections. That provoked a more radical response from Ukrainians that started to show its opposition against Russia's involvement in their country affairs.
We all saw how things developed later. Violence erupted and situation got out of control. I do not want to enter into a discussion about who shot on Maidan or Odessa and why all that happened. That's a result of a disastrous policy run by Kremlin in Ukraine. Of course, US had always interest to strengthen its position in that area, but that would have never happened if Russia had not allowed it to happen by building a democratic and stable environment in Ukraine.
Once we got to this situation, Russia realizes that it can loose its strategic position in Crimea and decides to use its military power to build up a Referendum in that region to bring it back to Russia as it had been till 60's. Once this has been done, Kremlin realizes that it can hardly handle Crimea if it has not a land border with it and starts to execute 2nd part of its military plan: set up a 'brother state' called 'Novarossiya' which will include Donbass, Zaparoshya, Odessa and will also allow them to join 'Pridnistrove' region to its motherland.
Meanwhile, a weak state with a very poorly equipped army tries to fight back and show to the world that they are not ready to give away its territory. At this point, everybody realizes that conflict will be bloody and maybe long.
What about EU ? We know that US is far from Ukraine. It's interested to improve its strategic position there, but anyway its far from there. EU has a common border with Ukraine ( Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania ). EU has very strong energetic and economic ties with Russia and has no interest to spoil this relationship. These are the views from countries as Germany, Italy or even France and Holland , but realizes that has to guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity as part of its policy of stability in Europe. Public opinion also pushes to press Russia to stop its military aggression and restore previous borders before start of conflict. Finally, countries agree in a list of economic sanctions to try to persuade Russia to change its policy towards Ukraine.
It's obvious that till today, Russia has not modified its policy or strategy and continues to give military support to rebels in Eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile Ukraine's army has improved its condition with financial and training support from NATO allies. It's obvious that Ukraine would never be able to stand a full attack by Russia , actually I doubt EU could, but it has improved its capacity to resist and can probably threaten Russia with a long 'city-by-city' war in case Russia decided to invade further.
During this year US has worked hard to increase its oil, gas production capacity and has persuaded some key partners as Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output. As a result energy prices have fallen and Russia is facing a economic crisis which will jeopardize its growth during next years.
What can we expect further ? I do not believe that these measure will make Russia change its mind. Any person who knows Russian mentality, will tell you that Russia will not accept 'defeat' in any case. Specially in this case. Russia has always been very sensible about its position in Black Sea. Historically it has been a place of fierce battles, against Turkey even UK, and Russia considers that area part of its nationhood. Strategically and emotionally is considered to be part of itself.
Bearing in mind this and expecting that nobody wishes to get in a full-scale war which would ruin that area and possibly also EU unity and economy, we need to go for a compromise.
This means that Ukraine has to remain somehow linked to Russia but we can't ignore that most of Ukrainians, due to past mistakes by Russia, are willing to have closer ties with EU or even US. Besides, we have a dramatic matter: NATO's membership.
Russia already has a common border with NATO's countries ( Baltic States ), so fact to have an additional border could be a too high stress for Moscow. Anyway, I do believe that main reason behind its frontal opposition about fact that Ukraine becomes NATO's full member are to be found in business: army industry. Ukraine still has very close ties with Russia and military speaking it keeps a quite decent military industry which works under Russia's umbrella and uses its standards. Shifting to NATO would mean full redefinition of business alliances in this important and strategic industry.
So, what should be done to avoid a bloody conflict for many years and restore peace in that region ?
Everybody should work in allowing Ukraine to have an Status that allows it to be part of the EU and Eurasian association at once. Meanwhile, Ukraine should work as a field for NATO and Russia to build up closer ties. Is everybody interested in this to happen ? I am not sure, but there's no other way to bring back peace to Ukraine and let their citizen enjoy a peaceful and prosperous future. If we do not want to have a ruined country and place for all international criminality to use it as its basecamp in Europe, we are oblied to stop this conflict.
I want to finish sending my best wishes to all my friends that live in Donbass and other regions in Ukraine. Let their families live in peace and happiness. Happy 2015 to all of you !!
As I was afraid of in post dated 2013, things have turned very bloody and situation has dramatically evolved during last year.
As a result, we have a country which has lost Crimea, risks to loose Donbass and is under a deep economic crisis.
How we got here ?
A political and business class composed basically from those who ruled and controlled Ukraine during last stages of USSR, used its position and power to build a lawless system which allowed them to take over all assets by privatizing best companies, sectors, land etc... and submit most of Ukranians to its rule not allowing country to transit from a state-economy to a free-economy but to a cleptocracy.
Most of Ukranians have not seen its situation improved but in many cases worsened during these 20 year of Independence.
Older generations have struggled to survive in this wild enviroment as pensions kept at very low level ( around 75 $/month !! ) while all utilities ( electricity, gas, water ) became too expensive for them. Food prices rose to levels that keep them away from any other product than those grown at local level. Basically, they have become 'Third World citizens' in the European continent.
Young people have grown in a wild environment, lacked of any other value than 'steal, cheat and become richer at any cost'. Education has not been a priority to be a prepared professional to succeed in your adult life but just a stage to be passed at any price. As a result, average skills and preparation has dramatically fallen. Most of youngster are hardly prepared to compete in 21st century economy.
Medical Care System is disastrous. State-runned is poorly equipped and doctors are not providing proper care if not paid additionally by patients. Private one is expensive and only less than 5% of people can have access to it. As a result, life expectancy has dramatically fallen.
Under these circumstances, you barely can't expect things to evolve positively. And that's what has happened. Once Yanukovich and all his thugs took over power ( democratically , we have to say ), things only worsened for normal average citizens. They plundered economy taking all remaining resources from a already stagnant country. Nobody in West or East really cared that much about it. As it's usually said: 'that was an internal affair'.
I do not know if Kremlin has never been truly interested about democracy and increase standards of life of citizens in Russia and its neighboring countries, but I am sure that is the main reason for citizens in Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus etc...to shift to West and look for a 'better future' as part of that world. Only a small minority has considered Russia as an enemy. Vast majority of people just want to have a decent life, it doesn't matter if it's under Kremlin's , US or EU's umbrella.
Once you get to that point of 'disaffection' ( term used in Catalonia to describe feeling of Catalan society in front of Spanish Government ), you can't hardly manage situation. Instead of trying to readdress situation by changing political power in Ukraine and install a decent regime, Kremlin got involved to try to sustain Yanukovich's Government once it was obvious that it has lost most of support of Ukrainians, even in Eastern part of the country where it was massively voted in previous elections. That provoked a more radical response from Ukrainians that started to show its opposition against Russia's involvement in their country affairs.
We all saw how things developed later. Violence erupted and situation got out of control. I do not want to enter into a discussion about who shot on Maidan or Odessa and why all that happened. That's a result of a disastrous policy run by Kremlin in Ukraine. Of course, US had always interest to strengthen its position in that area, but that would have never happened if Russia had not allowed it to happen by building a democratic and stable environment in Ukraine.
Once we got to this situation, Russia realizes that it can loose its strategic position in Crimea and decides to use its military power to build up a Referendum in that region to bring it back to Russia as it had been till 60's. Once this has been done, Kremlin realizes that it can hardly handle Crimea if it has not a land border with it and starts to execute 2nd part of its military plan: set up a 'brother state' called 'Novarossiya' which will include Donbass, Zaparoshya, Odessa and will also allow them to join 'Pridnistrove' region to its motherland.
Meanwhile, a weak state with a very poorly equipped army tries to fight back and show to the world that they are not ready to give away its territory. At this point, everybody realizes that conflict will be bloody and maybe long.
What about EU ? We know that US is far from Ukraine. It's interested to improve its strategic position there, but anyway its far from there. EU has a common border with Ukraine ( Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania ). EU has very strong energetic and economic ties with Russia and has no interest to spoil this relationship. These are the views from countries as Germany, Italy or even France and Holland , but realizes that has to guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity as part of its policy of stability in Europe. Public opinion also pushes to press Russia to stop its military aggression and restore previous borders before start of conflict. Finally, countries agree in a list of economic sanctions to try to persuade Russia to change its policy towards Ukraine.
It's obvious that till today, Russia has not modified its policy or strategy and continues to give military support to rebels in Eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile Ukraine's army has improved its condition with financial and training support from NATO allies. It's obvious that Ukraine would never be able to stand a full attack by Russia , actually I doubt EU could, but it has improved its capacity to resist and can probably threaten Russia with a long 'city-by-city' war in case Russia decided to invade further.
During this year US has worked hard to increase its oil, gas production capacity and has persuaded some key partners as Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output. As a result energy prices have fallen and Russia is facing a economic crisis which will jeopardize its growth during next years.
What can we expect further ? I do not believe that these measure will make Russia change its mind. Any person who knows Russian mentality, will tell you that Russia will not accept 'defeat' in any case. Specially in this case. Russia has always been very sensible about its position in Black Sea. Historically it has been a place of fierce battles, against Turkey even UK, and Russia considers that area part of its nationhood. Strategically and emotionally is considered to be part of itself.
Bearing in mind this and expecting that nobody wishes to get in a full-scale war which would ruin that area and possibly also EU unity and economy, we need to go for a compromise.
This means that Ukraine has to remain somehow linked to Russia but we can't ignore that most of Ukrainians, due to past mistakes by Russia, are willing to have closer ties with EU or even US. Besides, we have a dramatic matter: NATO's membership.
Russia already has a common border with NATO's countries ( Baltic States ), so fact to have an additional border could be a too high stress for Moscow. Anyway, I do believe that main reason behind its frontal opposition about fact that Ukraine becomes NATO's full member are to be found in business: army industry. Ukraine still has very close ties with Russia and military speaking it keeps a quite decent military industry which works under Russia's umbrella and uses its standards. Shifting to NATO would mean full redefinition of business alliances in this important and strategic industry.
So, what should be done to avoid a bloody conflict for many years and restore peace in that region ?
Everybody should work in allowing Ukraine to have an Status that allows it to be part of the EU and Eurasian association at once. Meanwhile, Ukraine should work as a field for NATO and Russia to build up closer ties. Is everybody interested in this to happen ? I am not sure, but there's no other way to bring back peace to Ukraine and let their citizen enjoy a peaceful and prosperous future. If we do not want to have a ruined country and place for all international criminality to use it as its basecamp in Europe, we are oblied to stop this conflict.
I want to finish sending my best wishes to all my friends that live in Donbass and other regions in Ukraine. Let their families live in peace and happiness. Happy 2015 to all of you !!
